Bitcoin’s New Tariff Battle May Take BTC Back to $80,000

Bitcoin (BTC) takes a beating as the new week begins with markets held hostage by global trade tariff uncertainty.

• Bitcoin dips below $92,000, but traders warn that a much deeper support retest is on the horizon.

• Tariffs take center stage again as analysis agrees that conditions will likely get worse before the risk-asset bull run continues.

• Gold and silver take the opportunity to make fresh all-time highs, but faith that Bitcoin will copy them remains.

• US macro data is due for release as Fed rate cuts fade into the background.

• Bitcoin is already laying the foundations for a sustainable uptrend.

Bitcoin price action: Volatility guaranteed

Bitcoin saw snap losses as US futures markets opened — a move that many expected based on current tariff talk.

In line with several infamous moments from 2025, nerves over international trade sent risk assets tumbling. 

BTC/USD briefly dipped below $92,000 before recovering, per data from TradingView.

“Get ready for a volatile week ahead!” trader CrypNuevo summarized in his latest X analysis thread.

Like others, CrypNuevo expected problematic moves thanks to the resurgence in broader market uncertainty. The US Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday means that the full stock market reaction will only be felt on Tuesday.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty, but markets like when the uncertainty dissappears. So I’m leaning to some downside pressure pushing price back inside the range and potentially trading into the range lows, before any real reversal,” he continued.

Important support levels include the 2026 yearly open around $87,000, as well as the range lows at $80,500 — both of which are now targets.

A look at exchange order books, meanwhile, reveals long liquidations mounting below the yearly open, increasing the odds of a liquidity run lower.

“Based on all of this, we still consider the most likely scenario that there is a shakeout in the stock market causing Bitcoin to drop back inside the range and trading towards the range lows in the coming weeks,” CrypNuevo added.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades nonetheless warned that a key breakout level from earlier — the 2025 yearly open at $93,500 — was now lost.

$BTC Moved straight down from the futures open when TradFi got a chance to react to the new tariffs announced over the weekend.

Price found support on the 4H 200EMA for now but has lost the breakout level.

This still has not been a market which I’m actively trading, which I am… pic.twitter.com/FSIxgWrnIM

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 19, 2026

“It is essential for the bulls to hold this breakout after 2 months of sideways price action,” he told X followers Sunday. 

“If price falls back down below $93K-$94K, then this was just a liquidity grab in a larger down trend.”

Tariffs promise a week of mayhem

Tariff wars are firmly back on the radar for risk-asset traders as tensions flare between the US and EU over Greenland.

Markets instantly reacted when futures opened late Sunday, sparking volatility despite Wall Street staying closed Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday.

Retaliatory measures are already flying between the two sides, including the possible cancellation of bilateral trade talks that resulted from previous rounds of tariff talks last year. The US plans to put up to 25% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, and Finland from Feb. 1. 

As Cointelegraph reported, crypto and stocks were highly sensitive to tariff-driven news throughout 2025. In April, Bitcoin set a new local low under $75,000 after US President Donald Trump’s tariff “Liberation Day.”

Now, commentators are considering whether or not the roadmap will look similar as the latest trade debacle progresses.

“President Trump ALWAYS leads with a punishing and threatening message, it’s part of his negotiation tactic. And, it has worked for him,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in an X post on the topic. 

Kobeissi referred to what it calls Trump’s “tariff playbook” — a set pattern that the US has used to introduce its trade measures and one to which markets react identically every time.

“The market’s reaction will likely come with a similar emotional selloff, but the impact may be less severe given there is time to digest the news,” it predicted.

The playbook involves 12 phases that play out over several weeks. During this time, markets have several bouts of weakness as uncertainty over trade comes and goes, but the outcome is always one that favors risk.

“Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration continue to tease progress toward a trade agreement,” step 11 states.

The final result is “a trade deal is announced and markets hit new record highs.”

Gold, silver push to new highs

While risk assets experience cold feet in the short term, however, precious metals continue to benefit from the chaos. 

Gold approached $7,000 per ounce for the first time to start the week, while silver also put in new all-time highs of $94.

“Gold continues to tell the future,” Kobeissi commented.

Against Bitcoin, gold remains just shy of two-year highs, having almost doubled in BTC terms since August 2025.

Commenting, network economist Timothy Peterson remained confident in Bitcoin’s ability to catch up with gold’s historic moves.

“Bitcoin and Gold trendlines are literally on top of each other. Both are headed to the same place, just taking different paths,” he told X followers at the weekend.

Last week, Peterson predicted that gold could still enjoy “at least” five more years of bull market, with stocks potentially due an even longer uptrend.

3/3

1) Are stocks at top-of-cycle? Yes! Does that mean crash? No!

2) How long can stocks stay on top? 20 years! (’85 – ’05) The reason: the internet.

3) What about this time? 20 years! The reason: AI + robotics.

4) Is gold at top-of-cycle? No!

5) How long till it… pic.twitter.com/u8VmP66n7e

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) January 16, 2026

Mixed inflation cues into Fed rate decision

Beyond tariffs, traders have more to contend with as the week rolls on.

Delayed US macroeconomic data is due for release, this time in the form of the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for November will come on Thursday, joining ongoing initial jobless claims and the first revision of Q3 GDP data.

Even without the tariff catalyst, the macro picture is one of contradictions. A strong start to 2026 for stocks comes amid unprecedented tensions between the Fed and the US government over financial policy, along with broader geopolitical uncertainty involving the Middle East.

“While investors will be fixated on the prospect for rising volatility around tariff and geopolitical headlines this week, the recent market action has remained extremely bullish to start the year,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic also observed a commodities breakout in progress — something that it forecasts “has massive implications for the inflation outlook.”

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on mixed US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for November going their separate ways.

The Fed, meanwhile, is still seen holding interest rates at current levels at its January meeting, providing no liquidity relief for crypto and risk assets.

Bitcoin markets flip “structurally healthy”

Bitcoin price action is giving analysts cause for optimism as a distinct trend shift gets underway for the first time in months.

Related: Three reasons why Bitcoin’s ‘real breakout’ toward $107K has begun

According to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, buyers are steadily regaining control of the market trajectory with last week’s move to near $98,000.

“The recent Bitcoin rebound is not a leverage-driven futures rally, but a move initiated by the recovery of real buying demand in the spot market,” contributor COINDREAM wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

The findings related to cumulative volume delta (CVD) on both spot and derivatives markets.

“Spot Taker CVD shifted clearly from sell-dominant to buy-dominant first, and futures Taker CVD followed this trend afterward,” CryptoQuant continued. 

“This indicates that the market is not in the late stage of an overheated rally, but rather in the early phase of demand recovery.”

This new “structurally healthy” uptrend contrasts considerably with most of Q4 2025, where downside persisted after a record liquidity wipeout at October’s all-time highs of $126,000.

CryptoQuant notes that overall open interest (OI) on derivatives has dropped by nearly 17.5% since then in BTC terms.

“At present, Open Interest is showing signs of a gradual recovery, suggesting a slow return of risk appetite,” contributor Darkfost commented in another “Quicktake” post. 

“If this trend continues and strengthens, it could increasingly support a continuation of the bullish momentum, although for now the rebound remains relatively modest.”