Bitcoin (BTC) will only hit six figures after its 2024 block subsidy halving, not before, Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers believes.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Aug. 15, Myers, who is co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, said that the market would only “price in” the halving post factum.
Markets not “efficient” with Bitcoin halving
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles are back in focus as the next halving event looms in the first half of 2024.
Miners will see the reward earned per block of transactions drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, while the corresponding drop in emission and its impact on supply and demand is getting analysts excited.
For Myers, however, markets will only bear out those implications after the halving has happened.
“Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving,” he summarized.
Justification comes in the form of criticism of market intuition. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), which states that markets always reflect the true state of a given asset, is “wrong,” Myers claims.
“Instead, the market will price-in the changed reality over the 12-18 months post-halving,” he added.
Current analysis shows that the year before a halving event has seen similar BTC price performance on each occasion.
Candle 4 happens to represent the year of the #BTC Halving
And historically, $BTC tends to retrace early on in a new Candle 4
But after this initial retrace, BTC then recovers and rallies significantly without looking back#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5blKD1E8n7
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 8, 2023
Halving vs. BTC price: “All very predictable”
That position contrasts with some recent forecasts for how BTC price action will evolve in the coming months and beyond.
Related: Bitcoin risks 15% dip by October, but $100K is due in 2026 — Analysis
Some believe a breakout is around the corner, with October currently a popular deadline for the Bitcoin bull market to return. In terms of pre-halving price predictions, $100,000 or more is not uncommon.
One of the latest calls for six-figure Bitcoin comes from Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular book, “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” who this week doubled down on his BTC price prediction.
Meanwhile, historical analysis shows that most of Bitcoin’s cycle gains occur post-halving rather than in the run-up to one.
After the past three halvings, it took a maximum of 240 days for BTC/USD to hit a new all-time high, trading team Stockmoney Lizards revealed this month.
“It is all very predictable. New all time high will occur shortly after Halving in 2024. Accumulation phase,” it told X subscribers.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.