Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last full week of July holding key support while macro clouds continue to gather.
Key points:
- Bitcoin preserves its 200-week trend line at the weekly close, leading to short-term BTC price targets of up to $67,000.
- US-Iran war rhetoric ramps up, with oil prices hitting five-week highs ahead of a week of corporate earnings reports.
- Bitcoin spot demand retreats from its early-July uptick despite ETF inflows.
- Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple heads higher, but analysts are wary of calling a “generational low.”
- Crypto market sentiment hits highest levels since the start of June.
Trader sees “further relief” for Bitcoin bulls
In a familiar move, Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure soon after the weekly close going into Monday morning, with local lows reaching $63,700, data from TradingView confirms.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Despite this, traders are becoming increasingly optimistic on shorter time frames as range lows continue to hold.
“Wouldn’t surprise me if we see some further relief this week – towards 65-67k,” trader Jelle predicted in his latest analysis posted Monday morning on X.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD had sealed its third consecutive weekly close above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $63,322.
“To really get this interesting you want to see a strong push higher now to retrace that last leg down and get back above the Weekly 200EMA,” he told X followers, referring to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,521.
“Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Others doubled down on bullish conviction, with trader Roman again flagging multiple bullish divergences across BTC price metrics, including the relative strength index (RSI), a classic leading indicator.
Contrasting the optimism was seasonality, with BTC price cycle history demanding another year of bear-market moves.
“Bitcoin is more than halfway through its second year in the current BTC Four Year Cycle. 2025 proved to be the year of the $BTC Bull Market peak. And 2026 has proven itself to be the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized.
“2027 will be the Bottoming Out year to precede an entirely brand new future Bitcoin Bull Market.”
BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital now calculates the current bear market to be just over 70% complete.
Iran worries send oil prices higher
Geopolitical risk is top of the agenda for risk-asset traders this week as the US-Iran war escalates once again.
Iran’s foreign minister warned of potentially “unresolvable” nuclear disputes while US President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to add Iran to a sanctions bill that was initially directed at Russia.
Source: Truth Social
Oil futures surged at the weekly open, with WTI crude at five-week highs above $80 per barrel and Brent crude topping $90.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As Cointelegraph reported, the return of the conflict saw the swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, that was briefly cleared for traffic as part of the now-failed US-Iran peace deal.
The latest Iran events provide volatile backdrop to the week’s macro outlook, which focuses on major corporate earnings as tech stocks face new headwinds.
In the coming days, Tesla, Alphabet and Intel will all report, providing a potential short-term volatility catalyst across risk assets.
“Earnings season is officially in full-swing,” trader resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a thread on X.
Following last week’s lower-than-expected US inflation data, meanwhile, Trump was buoyant, calling the numbers “great news.”
“As Investment pours into our Country, Factory Construction surges, Manufacturing Jobs rise, and Prices fall, there is so much to be proud of — The Golden Age of America is here!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Markets remained conservative on policy changes from the Federal Reserve, with the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing consensus for a 0.25% interest-rate hike in September.
Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot).
Source: CME Group
Bitcoin spot demand returns lower
Lackluster spot-market demand remains a key stumbling block on the road to bull-market recovery, research says.
In a blog post on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that a modest supply increase at the start of July had already dissipated.
“Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July but has since deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC,” contributor ScenarioX wrote.
Bitcoin demand data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on spot demand staying negative while recovering significantly on a rolling 30-day basis as BTC/USD hit $64,000. At the same time, futures markets saw a more pronounced influx of interest.
This was reflected in net flows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were positive for four out of five days last week, per data from UK-based investment manager, Farside Investors.
“Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market,’ ScenarioX said.
“However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
CryptoQuant suggested that the market could still continue to gain “for a while” before futures demand was exhausted.
“However, the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event,” ScenarioX warned.
Puell Multiple lows fail to convince
A classic BTC price metric is showing signs of a reversal this month, but CryptoQuant warns that it is too early to talk of a “generational low.”
The Puell Multiple, which measures the USD value of newly issued BTC each day relative to its 365-day moving average, continues to head higher after seeing macro lows in early June.
“A low reading means miner income is well below normal,” CryptoQuant contributor TheChessOnChain explained in a blog post.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: CryptoQuant
Puell in turn reflects on Bitcoin miners’ financial stability, and June’s 0.87 reading was the lowest since September 2024. Zooming out, however, each BTC price cycle has delivered higher lows for Puell, potentially boosting that latter reading’s chances of forming the next floor.
“These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year supply cut (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out. The real driver: price falls less each cycle (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since), so miner income never sinks as deep,” TheChessOnChain said.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
While Puell lows do not strictly correspond to BTC price bear-market bottoms, TheChessOnChain suggests that waiting for new lower readings — including the metric’s classic deep value territory — may be a flawed strategy.
“The 2024 and 2026 lows came with price still high, so they are Puell lows, not price bottoms. Waiting for the classic sub-0.5 zone, where miners sell at a loss, may mean waiting for a level that no longer prints,” they said.
“Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.”
Crypto sentiment gauge nears two-month high
Despite macro headwinds brewing over the weekend, crypto market sentiment continues to post a steady recovery.
Related: Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC supply in loss passed 50%
The latest readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show panic slowly dissipating among the broader investor base.
On Monday, the gauge measured 29/100 — still within its “fear” bracket but at its highest levels since the start of June. For much of the intervening period, crypto was gripped by “extreme fear.”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
In commentary on the rebound last week, research platform Santiment underscored its timing with the return of ETF inflows.
“After a long outflow stretch throughout May and June, this shift signals ETF demand is back and confidence in crypto is starting to pick up again,” it wrote on X.
Santiment argued that “encouraging” US inflation data had helped boost risk appetite, while “crypto policy optimism added another reason for sidelined buyers to re-enter.”