Bitcoin (BTC) fell back below $75,000 at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as relief over a US-Iran peace deal bypassed crypto.
Key points:
- Bitcoin continues to diverge from US stocks despite good news over the US-Iran war.
- BTC price action instead trends lower with oil amid improving odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
- Bitcoin traders see little reason to avoid new local lows nearer $70,000 next.
BTC price falls with oil as Iran peace deal details emerge
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD down by up to 1.2% on the day, targeting week-to-date lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
News that the US and Iran had produced a memorandum of understanding aimed at securing an end to the conflict sent stocks soaring to new all-time highs while commodities and oil, in particular, fell immediately.
US WTI crude dropped to as low as $87.77 per barrel on the day, its lowest since April 22.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Part of the deal, which reportedly sets out a 60-day negotiation period for securing a lasting agreement, includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil shipping route.
“If a final deal is reached within 60 days, this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution,” an X post on the developments from trading resource The Kobeissi Letter stated.
Despite the implied tailwinds for risk assets, Bitcoin failed to join the upward momentum, instead continuing a trend from recent weeks where it moved in the opposite direction to US equities.
“$BTC Indecisive whether to join stocks or commodities today,” trader Daan Crypto Trades responded.
Macro asset comparison chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Exchange order-book conditions set up potential liquidity grabs both above and below the price as positions increased on both sides.
“Although most of the liquidity is currently sitting above us, it’s spread out pretty evenly, which doesn’t give a clear target for an upside sweep. Meanwhile, below us there’s a large liquidation cluster around 74k that could pull price toward it,” trading and analytics account CGT Trader commented earlier.
“An upside sweep can’t be ruled out, but imo continuation to the downside is still more likely.”
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin stays “weak and bearish” despite macro tailwind
Other market participants continued the lack of optimism as Bitcoin headed lower.
Related: Bitcoin analysis eyes sharp rebound after BTC collapses below M2 supply ‘fair value’
Commentator Exitpump described BTC price action as “weak and bearish,” seeing a potential drop to near $72,000 next.
BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Exitpump/X
Trading resource Material Indicators added further hurdles, including a potential death cross involving the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
An accompanying chart showed up and down signals from one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools, along with significant price points.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Material Indicators/X
Among the decreasing bullish voices was analyst Eric Coleman, who saw current price action as retesting the top of an ascending triangle construction on daily time frames.
“As long as the price is above the horizontal and the trendline support, the trend remains bullish,” he concluded.
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Eric Coleman/X