Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $82,000 appears to be cooling off, and analysts say key levels must be reclaimed for BTC price to “confirm a durable continuation higher.”
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin must break resistance at $85,000-$88,000 to confirm that the bottom is in.
- Profit-taking on rallies must cool down for a sustained breakout in BTC price.
Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000 as support
Bitcoin’s 7% climb over the last week to $81,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the true market mean at $78,200 and short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $79,100.
If the price sustains above these two levels, the 50% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high to sub-$60,000 levels in February “would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
“Attention now shifts to the next major resistance at the Active Realized Price near $85.2K, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural threshold the market must reckon with.”
Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: Glassnode
The last time Bitcoin reclaimed its active realized price, in October 2023, it was followed by a 170% rally to its previous all-time high of $74,000 reached in March 2024. These gains increased to 365% once the price hit its current record highs above $126,000.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on ‘positive’ signal
Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals other major levels of resistance sitting higher up: the realized price of the three-to-six-month investor cohort at $88,880, the 12-month-18-month cost basis at $93,450 and the average purchase price of the six-to-12-month investor cohort at $111,850.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail,” CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said in a Thursday Quicktake note, adding:
“Until then, every rally into $85K-$88K is walking straight into distribution from November 2025-Feb 2026, buyers desperate to get out flat.”
Bitcoin realized price – UTXO age bands. Source: CryptoQuant
A sustained move above that level could put recent buyers back in profit and reduce sell pressure, confirming a “durable continuation higher,” Glassnode added.
Analyst MikybullCrypto highlighted Bitcoin’s core levels of resistance before a “mega solid trend change,” including $88,000 and $92,000, based on Fibonacci level analysis.
“Overcome these resistances, then $100K is guaranteed.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: MikybullCrypto
Profit-taking by long-term holders could delay BTC price recovery
Bitcoin’s current pullback below $81,000 could be attributed to increased profit-taking by long-term holders.
Additionally, the 14-day simple moving average of profit realized by investors who have held BTC for more than one year has increased to about $180 million per day following the recent rally.
Should the current recovery continue, “this distribution pressure is likely to intensify,” Glassnode said, adding:
“The market’s ability to absorb this gradual increase in supply while sustaining the price above the True Market Mean will be the defining test of whether the current recovery has genuine structural legs.”
Bitcoin realized profit by age. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, realized losses remain elevated at $479 million per day, approximately 140% above the $200 million per day cycle baseline.
A sustained compression of this indicator below $200 million per day would serve as a strong indicator that selling exhaustion is setting in and confirm a “more durable recovery regime,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Until that threshold is reached, the dual weight of long-term holder profit taking and top-buyer distribution at thin loss margins is likely to anchor the current rally.”
Bitcoin realized loss. Source: Glassnode
