Bitcoin Weathers Oil Supply Storm With a Push Toward $70,000

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $69,000 at Monday’s Wall Street open with markets in limbo over the Middle East oil crisis.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees a rebound after dropping below $68,000 for the weekly close.

• Oil woes continue as the G7 fails to agree on a timeline for the release of reserve oil supplies.

• Bitcoin derivatives traders stay level-headed on the mid-term outlook.

Analysis: Trump wants to buy time with oil

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action continuing a rebound that began just before the weekly close.

Now up 5% on the day, BTC/USD showed strength relative to global stock markets, with Asia particularly sensitive to the ongoing suspension of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

A dedicated meeting of the G7 countries to discuss the release of 400 million barrels of crude from their joint reserves ended in indecision on the day.

“The G7 countries have ~1.2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, which is equivalent to ~60 days of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 400 million barrels can supply roughly 20 days worth of Strait of Hormuz oil flows,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in a post on X. 

“But, it’s a risk. If the war rages on once these stockpiles are depleted, the world would enter an unprecedented energy crisis.”

Kobeissi argued that US President Donald Trump was “looking to ‘buy’ a couple more weeks” with the initiative.

WTI oil was still up 9% on the day at the time of writing, circling $100 per barrel amid considerable volatility.

Gold, meanwhile, lacked the momentum to head closer toward all-time highs after starting the week with a retest of $5,000.

Commenting, trading company QCP Capital noted a rotation from gold to the US dollar as a hedge against the current geopolitical uncertainty.

“With uncertainty rising, global equity markets have turned defensive. That said, US Treasuries and gold also failed to provide their usual haven bid, with both coming under pressure as surging crude prices stoke inflation fears and push yields higher,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis post. 

“Instead, the US dollar has emerged as the preferred defensive asset, supported by elevated yields and the US’s status as a net energy exporter.”

Bitcoin options traders see no “one-way decline”

Bitcoin thus eyed key price points that bulls had failed to reclaim at the weekly close.

Related: Bitcoin braces for oil shock and death crosses: 5 things to know this week

Here, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe hoped that oil would settle down, allowing for BTC price relief.

“Bitcoin continues to show strength and it’s already back up to $69K,” he acknowledged. 

“If Oil continues to fall and indices break back upwards, I would assume that we’ll start to see a continuation towards the range high again.”

QCP pointed to the “more nuanced outlook” for the market being created by derivatives traders.

“For example, the purchase of 500x BTC 24APR26 72k straddle points to expectations of continued volatility rather than a sharp, one-way decline,” it continued about options. 

“Notably, March’s highest open interest is concentrated at the 75k and 125k call strikes. While a rapid recovery to these levels remains unlikely, this positioning signals pockets of renewed optimism in BTC despite ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainty.”