Bitcoin Eyes $100,000 Target as Analysis Shrugs Off Risk-Asset Bear Threats

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated around $95,000 toward Wednesday’s Wall Street open as analysis dismissed macroeconomic threats.

While geopolitical risks and US trade policy uncertainty remain in focus, traders appeared more influenced by liquidity conditions and relative asset performance, with Bitcoin lagging gold and equities before reclaiming $95,000.

Key points:

• Bitcoin prepares its next move after a key daily close above the 2025 yearly open.

• Gold and stocks at all-time highs contrast the volatility risk from geopolitical tensions and the US Supreme Court tariff ruling.

• BTC price action faces multiple hurdles, with $100,000 a turning point.

Bitcoin analysis: Macro risk “already priced in”

Data from TradingView showed cooler BTC price action returning after a run to two-month highs near $96,500.

These came as geopolitical tensions involving the US increased, including fresh potential intervention in Venezuela and Iran, as well as concerns over Greenland. 

At the same time, the spat between the government and Federal Reserve took on an increasingly public character, with central banks worldwide rallying in support of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

S&P 500 futures hit fresh record highs in advance of Tuesday’s US session, while gold built on existing records on the day, reaching $4,639 per ounce.

Among crypto market participants, the anticipation of Bitcoin finally catching up with the global asset bull run was noticeably high. 

“Bitcoin has been lagging behind the equity market and precious metal rally, but it has finally pushed through the $95k level that capped rallies since November,” trading resource QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.

QCP added another risk-asset impetus to the mix in the form of Fed economic liquidity injections.

“With potentially further fiat currency debasement in the US, which has been driving precious metals higher, the relative cheapness of Bitcoin relative to precious metals at this point may spur a rotation to digital assets,” it continued.

QCP argued that despite current implied risks to market stability, traders were already one step ahead. Even President Donald Trump’s international trade tariffs being ruled illegal — with alleged multitrillion-dollar implications — should not disrupt the overall trend.

“Risks remain, notably the pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and any escalation in Venezuela or Iran,” the update added. 

“For now, the market continues to move higher in the face of these risks, which makes us believe this is already priced in. In the absence of a new unknown unknown, any further escalations should be a buy-the-dip opportunity.”

BTC price faces threat of “liquidity run”

Others also found new reasons for optimism, among them Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments.

Related: Bitcoin loses to gold as debasement trade with BTC at 2-year lows: Analysis

“Strong Bitcoin move! Bitcoin just has its first promising technical move in a while,” he told X followers.

Edwards flagged a daily close above the 2025 yearly open level near $93,500 — Bitcoin’s first since Jan. 6. 

“Opens up good odds of trend to $108K from here,” he added. 

“Also need to see this weekly close above $93.5K to confirm the downside fakeout (bullish). Now would be a great time to turn this ship around!”

Trader Jelle spied what he called a “major” breakout from a descending triangle pattern in place since mid-November.

As Cointelegraph reported, some perspectives argued that this pattern was a relief bounce within a broader downtrend. Trader Roman, who predicted that BTC/USD would target $76,000 once downside reappeared, remained bearish.

“This is text book bearish price action: volume going up – price going down followed by volume going down – price going up/sideways,” he wrote about the weekly chart. 

“Maybe we retest 100k area but this is nothing to get excited about. Next time large volume comes in, it’ll likely be a move lower.”

Trader CrypNeuvo, meanwhile, advised caution ahead of a potential resistance battle with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $97,650.

“This could be a liquidity run towards the 1W50EMA where price could be rejected from,” he warned about the latest gains. 

“Breaking above $100k (4% higher) is my invalidation to this idea.”